The Associated Press used a new mathematical formula to scrutinize roughly 4,700 state House and Assembly seats up for election a year ago and found a decided advantage for Republicans in numerous states, including Idaho.
The AP also calculated efficiency gap scores for the U.S. House elections, though experts caution those measurements are less statistically meaningful in states with few districts.
There's no statistical evidence Republicans unfairly clustered or split up the Democratic vote the last time Wyoming lawmakers redrew state House and Senate district boundaries following the 2010 census.
The analysis found that Virginia was among those states with Republican-skewed state House districts as well as congressional districts. It also underscores years of legal battles in Texas over redistricting.
Republican House candidates received 763,824 votes in 2016, compared to 694,720 votes for Democratic candidates.
Ultimately, Republicans picked up a 13th district in a state where registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by a margin of 4 to 3.
In Texas, Republicans gained almost four excess congressional seats compared to projections from a typical votes-to-seats ratio, according to the AP's analysis.
Republicans, who held 106 state House seats after the 2010 elections, have fared even better under the new map.Читайте также: 'Wonder Woman' just keeps smashing all kinds of records
"There is concern around the state about, I don't know if it's so much about gerrymandering, but about disenfranchised voters", he said. Yet Republicans won 57 percent of the House seats, claiming 63 seats to the Democrats' 47.
According to the AP data, even though House Republicans averaged 57.6 percent of the vote in the 100 districts across in in 2016, they won or retained 70 seats in the House of Representatives.
Republican candidates had other advantages, the AP found, from a larger number of incumbents to a voter base spread over more of the country rather than concentrated in cities.
The AP analysis was based on a formula developed by University of Chicago law professor Nick Stephanopoulos and Eric McGhee, a researcher at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. They said factors other than gerrymandering could have contributed, including shifting political attitudes.
The AP used their method to calculate efficiency gaps for all states that held partisan House or Assembly elections for all of their districts in 2016. The U.S. Supreme Court said it will hear that case, potentially affecting voting across the U.S.
A previous efficiency gap analysis conducted by Simon Jackman, a former professor of political science and statistics at Stanford University, found that the Republican advantage was even higher in the 2012 and 2014 Missouri House elections.
Democratic Sen. Matt Jones was a House representative appointed to the 2011 legislative reapportionment committee.При любом использовании материалов сайта и дочерних проектов, гиперссылка на обязательна.
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