The main round of storms is expected in the Kansas City area Wednesday night as a line of storms drop south out of Iowa.
An enhanced risk means the SPC believes numerous severe storms are possible.
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The first round of storms will arrive early Friday morning, first in NWAR, then in the River Valley.
With strong southwest winds bringing/maintaining increasingly warm moist unstable air overhead and a slow-moving low pressure and associated cold front to our west, timing of the severe storms will most likely coincide with the peak-heating portion of the afternoon into the evening hours each day. This means scattered strong to severe storms will be possible in these areas with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats (tornadoes can not be ruled out either). The cold front will weaken slightly, while perhaps lifting northward late in the afternoon/early evening as a central Plains low-level jet strengthens to around 40-50 kt.Iowa, Wisconsin, and northern IL. Hail could grow up to the size of tennis balls and winds could be up to 75 miles per hour.
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We will have a break Saturday afternoon and scattered storms will form Sunday. Lows will be around 70°. The showers and storms will likely be strong at times with heavy rain in isolated thunderstorms. Highs will be in the mid-upper 80s and slightly more humid on Sunday.
The storms the next three days could bring 2 to 4 inches of rain to northern Missouri.
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The main threat for severe weather will extend from south-central Oklahoma to southern IL on Friday. While models are hinting at a small chances of storms Wednesday and Thursday as well will keep it dry due to inconsistencies and being just one model indicating the chance.